Spider-Man: Brand New Day is forecast to break the all-time record for a second weekend at the North American box office, with projections ranging from $142m to $180m against a benchmark of $149.2m.
The record has been held since 2015 by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Avengers: Endgame is second on $147.3m.
What are the forecasts?
Box Office Theory put the range at $142m to $160m, describing a considerable chance of beating the record.
More bullish estimates run to $180m. Deadline noted that even a 60 per cent decline would leave the film on about $144m, which would rank third all-time.
| Rank | Film | Second weekend |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Star Wars: The Force Awakens | $149.2m |
| 2 | Avengers: Endgame | $147.3m |
| 3 | Avengers: Infinity War | $114.8m |
What is the record for a second weekend at the box office?
The largest second weekend in North American box office history is $149.2m, recorded by Star Wars: The Force Awakens in December 2015. Avengers: Endgame holds second place with $147.3m from April 2019, and Avengers: Infinity War third with $114.8m. Spider-Man: Brand New Day, which set the all-time opening weekend record of $360.1m in August 2026, is forecast to challenge that mark in its second frame, with published projections ranging from $142m to $180m. A decline of 60 per cent from its opening would produce roughly $144m, sufficient for third place. The film adds IMAX screens for the second weekend, having opened without them because those auditoriums were committed to Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey.
What supports a strong hold?
The film faces little direct competition. The weekend’s new wide releases are expected to open outside the top five, with forecasts of $3.5m and $1.3m.
Audience scores have been strong, at 98 per cent on Rotten Tomatoes’ audience meter and 4.1 from Letterboxd users. Weekday takings have also held, with the film recording the biggest Monday in domestic history at $47m.
What could hold it back?
An opening this large concentrates demand. Films that take a historically high share of available audience in three days often see steeper second-weekend declines simply because fewer people are left to convert.
The addition of IMAX screens partly offsets that, though those auditoriums are shared with The Odyssey rather than given over entirely.
Why second weekends are the real test
An opening weekend measures marketing. The second measures the film. Word of mouth, repeat viewing and the audience that waited out the first-weekend crowds all show up in the sophomore frame, which is why studios watch the percentage drop more closely than the raw figure.
Typical declines for a large tentpole run between 55 and 65 per cent. Films that hold below 50 per cent tend to post the highest final totals, because the shallower curve compounds across subsequent weekends.
Both records currently in the frame were set by films that opened at a comparable scale, so the comparison is between titles operating in the same bracket rather than across eras of very different ticket pricing.
Update: what happened
The film took $145m over the weekend of 7 to 9 August, short of the $149.2m record held by Star Wars: The Force Awakens. It is the third-largest second weekend recorded, ahead of Avengers: Infinity War and behind Force Awakens and Avengers: Endgame.
The figure fell at the lower end of the published range and represented a decline of 59 per cent from the opening. Sony revised it upward from an initial $144.5m.
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Sources for this report
The Redline News Desk
The Redline News desk files and edits world reporting. Every story carries the sources it was built from, and corrections are published on the story itself.
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