2026 is on course to be the second-warmest year on record, with projections putting the global average at about 1.58C above pre-industrial levels, after a European summer that broke national temperature records across the continent.
Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record at an average of 20.74C, some 3.05C above the 1991 to 2020 average and ahead of the previous record set in June 2025.
Which records fell?
A total of 252 weather stations across Europe recorded all-time temperature records, the highest number registered, according to figures compiled by the World Meteorological Organization.
France recorded its hottest day on record on 24 June, with a national average of 30.0C, surpassing marks set in July 2019 and August 2003. Germany broke records on three consecutive days, with 41.7C at Coschen near the Polish border on 28 June.
| Country | Record |
|---|---|
| France | Hottest day on record, 30.0C national average |
| Germany | 41.7C at Coschen, 28 June |
| Netherlands | National June record of 39.4C |
| Denmark | All-time high of 37.0C, breaking a 1975 record |
| Switzerland | June record of 39C at Basel |
How hot will 2026 be?
Global average temperature in 2026 is projected to reach approximately 1.58C above the pre-industrial baseline, with an uncertainty range of about 0.07C, which would make it the second-warmest year on record behind 2024. Forecasters put the probability of 2026 becoming the warmest year on record at roughly 30 per cent. Western Europe recorded its warmest June on record in 2026, averaging 20.74C, which is 3.05C above the 1991 to 2020 average for the month. National temperature records were set in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland during June, and 252 European weather stations registered all-time highs. The World Meteorological Organization forecasts rapid development toward strong El Nino conditions during the August to October period, which typically raises global temperatures further.
What is driving it?
Meteorologists attribute the severity of individual heatwaves to persistent high-pressure systems known as omega blocks, which interrupt the westerly winds that would otherwise break up a heat event and allow conditions to intensify over successive days.
Such blocks were implicated in the March heatwave in the American southwest, an early July heatwave in the north-eastern United States, and the June and July events in Europe. The underlying warming trend determines how extreme those events become.
What comes next?
The WMO forecasts rapid development toward strong El Nino conditions for the August to October period, with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole also expected and the equatorial Atlantic remaining warm.
El Nino years typically run warmer globally. The Netherlands issued an unprecedented red alert for extreme heat across eight provinces on 26 June, and forecasters expect further warm anomalies across most regions.
Why the ranking matters less than the trend
Individual year rankings move with natural variability. El Nino and La Nina phases modulate global temperature by a few tenths of a degree in either direction, which is enough to reorder the leaderboard without changing the underlying direction.
The Paris Agreement target of holding warming well below 2C, and preferably to 1.5C, refers to a long-term average rather than any single year. A year above 1.5C does not itself constitute a breach, though it indicates how close the margin has become.
Forecasters had already assessed the chance of at least one year between 2025 and 2029 exceeding the 2024 record at around 80 per cent.
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Sources for this report
The Redline News Desk
The Redline News desk files and edits world reporting. Every story carries the sources it was built from, and corrections are published on the story itself.
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